SFS Chapter 206 Probability
Chapter 206 Probability
"Isn't the probability one in two? There is a way behind one door, and there is no way behind the other door. If it's not one in two, what is it?" Tengu said with his neck stretched out.
"You have to understand, when we initially chose the first gate, there were three gates in total, so the probability of each gate was one-third."
"Then, that mysterious voice helped us rule out one of the gates, and the one-third probability of that ruled-out gate was added to the other gate."
"That is to say, the probability of the first gate we choose at the beginning is one-third, and the probability of the second gate is two-thirds."
"I think anyone with a brain would change their choice. After all, the probability is so much greater."
Chu Yang glanced at Tengu and explained.
After hearing what Chu Yang said, Tiangou suddenly understood. So that's how it was. The logic in it actually had this kind of tricks. He almost got fooled.
Then Tengu showed an embarrassed look: "Ahem, do you think I don't know? I was just testing you to see if you have this ability."
Chu Yang did not puncture Tengu's self-esteem, but looked at Xuezhan.
I don’t know if Xuezhan understood.
This is the classic three-door problem.
Maybe some of you didn’t understand because three doors are too few.
If there are a hundred doors, one door leads to life, and ninety-nine doors lead to death.
If you choose one of the doors before eliminating any of them at the beginning, the chance of survival is one percent.
Then, after eliminating ninety-eight dead-end doors, the probability that the remaining door that has not been chosen is a way out is ninety-nine percent.
As long as you think clearly about the logical relationship, this problem is very simple, and countless problems can be raised by extending it.
Xuezhan looked confused. Even after Chu Yang explained it, he still didn't understand.
At this time, the mysterious voice sounded again: "Now change the rules, whoever chooses will go first."
"If the path you choose is a dead end, then all you have to do is die."
Hearing this, Chu Yang frowned.
What a vicious method! It will cause conflicts among them.
As expected, Tengu's eyes suddenly turned green and he looked at Chu Yang dimly.
"If you let me choose, I will fight you to the death right now."
"Let me choose. I trust Boss Chu." Xuezhan stood up.
"Although the probability of changing the door is two-thirds, it is not 100% after all, so there is still a certain risk." Chu Yang said.
"It's okay, let me do it."
Xuezhan took a step forward and pushed open the second wooden door.
Chu Yang and Tiangou's hearts were in their throats, staring at the door intently.
"Wang Wang!"
Thank God, there was a snow-white puppy behind the door, wagging its tail at Chu Yang and the others, looking very cute.
Xuezhan picked up the puppy without saying a word and threw it into the dark abyss.
"What are you doing?" Tiangou was shocked and hurried forward to stop him.
"One more dog means one more variable. What's wrong with me throwing it away?" Xuezhan asked back.
The Tengu was speechless, but the meaning was very clear: "Don't throw it away."
Xuezhan looked at Chu Yang.
"Keep it." Xue Yang said.
Putting aside the intention of there being a dog behind the door, the fact that Tengu was so resolute was enough to make the risk worth taking.
After all, they are now teammates in the same trench.
"what!"
At this moment, terrified screams were heard from the other two bridges, followed by the sound of something falling freely.
"It seems they all made the wrong choice." Xuezhan said.
Chu Yang was not surprised. The three problems were created by humans. Even in human society, 70% of people did not know about them, let alone these evil ones.
"Let's go forward."
The man, two ghosts and one dog continued to walk forward. After walking for a long distance, a table suddenly appeared in front of them.
There is a test paper on the table.
Tiangou and Xuezhan were both curious about the test paper and didn't know what it was used for. Only Chu Yang knew.
This is a cancer test strip.
"Now, there is a cancer test strip in front of you. Please follow my instructions and test this poor puppy for cancer." A mysterious voice sounded slowly.
"What is cancer?" Tengu asked in confusion.
"One of the most hopeless diseases for humans, in the late stages of cancer, 98% of patients will die," Chu Yang explained.
"That's okay. Since it's a human disease, it has nothing to do with dogs." Tengu touched the puppy's head in his arms and actually felt a sense of relief.
"Unfortunately, there is no evidence that dogs cannot get cancer. Li Gui cannot get cancer." Chu Yang shrugged.
"You mean he might have cancer?" Tengu frowned.
"Yes, if a dog gets cancer, the early stages that are curable for us humans are fatal to the dog." Chu Yang nodded.
Tiangou stopped talking to Chu Yang and asked the mysterious voice, "How do I detect it?"
"First this, then that," the mysterious voice replied.
"Oh, there's one caveat. Cancer test strips aren't 100% accurate. The accuracy rate for a positive result is 98%."
Tengu nodded, and then conducted the test on the little white dog in his arms according to what the mysterious voice said.
The test results came out soon.
"Hey, how do I read this test paper?" Tiangou asked Chu Yang.
Chu Yang took a step forward and looked carefully.
"Hiss... What a coincidence?"
"What do you mean?" Tengu suddenly felt uneasy.
"Positive. According to what the mysterious voice said, there is a 98% chance that the dog in your arms has cancer." Chu Yang said in a serious tone.
He was a little puzzled. What was the meaning of this mysterious voice giving them a dog with cancer?
If nothing unexpected happens, the mysterious voice will have a follow-up move, which is very likely to endanger their lives.
Hearing Chu Yang's words, Tiangou was stunned, and then looked at the little white dog in his arms.
"Wang Wang."
The little white dog shouted.
One is a normal dog, the other is a vicious dog. The heavenly dog can clearly see the emotions in the little white dog's eyes.
Nervous and uneasy.
In this mysterious and strange world, the little white dog was helpless and his body was trembling slightly with fear.
"Are you going to die?"
The Tengu's claws also began to tremble slightly.
What is the difference between a 98% cancer rate and 100%?
Seeing Tengu's appearance, Chu Yang became even more confused.
It's just a dog, why do you have to protect it like this?
It was the same before and it is the same now.
Is this little white dog very important to Tengu?
But it doesn’t look like it. Chu Yang doesn’t believe that Tiangou is the kind of evil general who loves life.